luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Titans, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Dolphins 34–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:11 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 3
Tennessee Titans 34

January 2, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +11 Titans about even · −11 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 41 TEN 34
  2. 2 MIA 26 TEN 28
  3. 3 MIA 10 TEN 14
  4. 4 MIA 12 TEN 20
  5. 5 MIA 14 TEN 24
  6. 6 MIA 13 TEN 26
  7. 7 MIA 6 TEN 20
  8. 8 MIA 3 TEN 21
  9. 9 MIA 3 TEN 24
  10. 10 MIA 13 TEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 11% of them, Titans 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.9%
Dolphins by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Titans by 1–818.9%
Titans by 9–1625.1%
Titans by 17+43.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 31, without the luck Titans by 24. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Sanders, 53 yds blocked · 61% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 55 yards, Titans 6 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +1.8 pts
Q1 5:30 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yards +3% TEN +1.5 pts
Q3 11:39 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans (Chester Rogers), 15 yards +1% MIA +1.3 pts
Q3 7:35 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Bud Dupree), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.4 pts
Q3 2:26 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +2.4 pts
Q3 2:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 12 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 1:58 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 10:25 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (DeVante Parker), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 5:25 Roughing the Kicker on the Dolphins (Brandon Jones), 15 yards 0% TEN +2.8 pts
Q4 1:06 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards 0% MIA +1.0 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 11:44 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% TEN MIA: Punt
3 Q1 7:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% MIA TEN: Punt
4 Q1 1:13 The Dolphins fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TEN MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 11:11 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +8% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q2 5:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yardsJudgment calls +3% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:21 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% TEN MIA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 12:00 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Monty Rice (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 31
Luck in points
7.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 24.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 11% · Titans 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Dolphins · Titans

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