luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 3, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 26–14, but the Browns played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:33 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

January 3, 2022 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +62 Steelers very lucky · −62 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 25 PIT 3
  2. 2 CLE 31 PIT 15
  3. 3 CLE 33 PIT 20
  4. 4 CLE 24 PIT 16
  5. 5 CLE 19 PIT 14
  6. 6 CLE 10 PIT 8
  7. 7 CLE 10 PIT 13
  8. 8 CLE 16 PIT 22
  9. 9 CLE 13 PIT 24
  10. 10 CLE 0 PIT 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 62% of them, Steelers 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+17.6%
Browns by 9–1620.5%
Browns by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Steelers by 1–817.9%
Steelers by 9–1610.9%
Steelers by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 12, without the luck Steelers by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 10 for 77 yards, Steelers 5 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:26 Face Mask on the Steelers (Justin Layne), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 8:41 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.4 pts
Q1 6:02 False Start on the Browns (Austin Hooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 13:33 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 12:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.1 pts
Q2 7:19 Illegal Shift on the Steelers (Justin Layne), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:40 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.3 pts
Q2 0:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 15 yards +5% PIT +2.1 pts
Q3 10:56 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +1.5 pts
Q4 8:52 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.5 pts
Q4 8:22 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q4 7:34 Delay of Game on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.2 pts
Q4 3:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 16 yards +1% CLE +3.0 pts
Q4 1:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 10 yards +2% CLE +2.6 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:41 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 2382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +8% CLE PIT: Punt
2 Q1 5:33 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PIT CLE: Punt
3 Q1 2:54 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 0:46 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% CLE PIT: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:02 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% PIT CLE: Punt
6 Q2 9:04 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q3 1:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% PIT PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Schobert (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Wormley (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.3 pts
  • John Johnson (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 14% · Steelers 86%

Final margin
Steelers by 12
Luck in points
3.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 62% · Steelers 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Browns · Steelers

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