luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · January 2, 2022–January 3

Week 17 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Chiefs 34–31 in a game they win 15% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 23–20 @ Colts 26% 49% Coin flip
Cardinals 25–22 @ Cowboys 32% 75% Deserved
Bengals 34–31 vs Chiefs 40% 15% Lucky
Steelers 26–14 vs Browns 47% 38% Lucky

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 34–31 vs Chiefs 15% +85
2 Steelers W 26–14 vs Browns 38% +62
3 Raiders W 23–20 @ Colts 49% +51
4 Chargers W 34–13 vs Broncos 53% +47
5 Eagles W 20–16 @ Washington 56% +44
6 Bills W 29–15 vs Falcons 75% +25
7 Cardinals W 25–22 @ Cowboys 75% +25
8 Saints W 18–10 vs Panthers 81% +19
9 Rams W 20–19 @ Ravens 84% +16
10 Seahawks W 51–29 vs Lions 86% +14
11 Titans W 34–3 vs Dolphins 89% +11
12 Buccaneers W 28–24 @ Jets 89% +11
13 Bears W 29–3 vs Giants 90% +10
14 Patriots W 50–10 vs Jaguars 95% +5
15 Packers W 37–10 vs Vikings 98% +3
16 49ers W 23–7 vs Texans 99% +1
17 Texans L 7–23 @ 49ers 1% −1
18 Vikings L 10–37 @ Packers 3% −3
19 Jaguars L 10–50 @ Patriots 5% −5
20 Giants L 3–29 @ Bears 10% −10
21 Jets L 24–28 vs Buccaneers 11% −11
22 Dolphins L 3–34 @ Titans 11% −11
23 Lions L 29–51 @ Seahawks 14% −14
24 Ravens L 19–20 vs Rams 16% −16
25 Panthers L 10–18 @ Saints 19% −19
26 Cowboys L 22–25 vs Cardinals 25% −25
27 Falcons L 15–29 @ Bills 25% −25
28 Washington L 16–20 vs Eagles 44% −44
29 Broncos L 13–34 @ Chargers 47% −47
30 Colts L 20–23 vs Raiders 51% −51
31 Browns L 14–26 @ Steelers 62% −62
32 Chiefs L 31–34 @ Bengals 85% −85