luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · January 8, 2022–January 9

Week 18 2021: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Ravens 16–13 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 18 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jaguars 26–11 vs Colts 15% 82% Deserved
Dolphins 33–24 vs Patriots 33% 28% Lucky
Seahawks 38–30 @ Cardinals 34% 83% Deserved
Lions 37–30 vs Packers 38% 53% Coin flip
Raiders 35–32 vs Chargers 40% 58% Coin flip
Steelers 16–13 @ Ravens 41% 17% Lucky
49ers 27–24 @ Rams 41% 75% Deserved

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 16–13 @ Ravens 17% +83
2 Dolphins W 33–24 vs Patriots 28% +72
3 Lions W 37–30 vs Packers 53% +47
4 Vikings W 31–17 vs Bears 54% +46
5 Raiders W 35–32 vs Chargers 58% +42
6 Titans W 28–25 @ Texans 71% +29
7 49ers W 27–24 @ Rams 75% +25
8 Saints W 30–20 @ Falcons 77% +23
9 Chiefs W 28–24 @ Broncos 79% +21
10 Jaguars W 26–11 vs Colts 82% +18
11 Seahawks W 38–30 @ Cardinals 83% +17
12 Browns W 21–16 vs Bengals 89% +11
13 Washington W 22–7 @ Giants 92% +8
14 Cowboys W 51–26 @ Eagles 94% +6
15 Buccaneers W 41–17 vs Panthers 99% +1
16 Bills W 27–10 vs Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 10–27 @ Bills 0% 0
18 Panthers L 17–41 @ Buccaneers 1% −1
19 Eagles L 26–51 vs Cowboys 6% −6
20 Giants L 7–22 vs Washington 8% −8
21 Bengals L 16–21 @ Browns 11% −11
22 Cardinals L 30–38 vs Seahawks 17% −17
23 Colts L 11–26 @ Jaguars 18% −18
24 Broncos L 24–28 vs Chiefs 21% −21
25 Falcons L 20–30 vs Saints 23% −23
26 Rams L 24–27 vs 49ers 25% −25
27 Texans L 25–28 vs Titans 29% −29
28 Chargers L 32–35 @ Raiders 42% −42
29 Bears L 17–31 @ Vikings 46% −46
30 Packers L 30–37 @ Lions 47% −47
31 Patriots L 24–33 @ Dolphins 72% −72
32 Ravens L 13–16 vs Steelers 83% −83