Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Colts at Jaguars, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Colts 26–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Colts.
An off day for the Colts: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:51 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 13, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 11 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Jaguars about even · −18 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 2, Jaguars win 8.
- 1 IND 30 JAX 20
- 2 IND 23 JAX 20
- 3 IND 20 JAX 23
- 4 IND 10 JAX 15
- 5 IND 3 JAX 10
- 6 IND 13 JAX 22
- 7 IND 13 JAX 24
- 8 IND 13 JAX 27
- 9 IND 10 JAX 27
- 10 IND 7 JAX 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Colts
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
55 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.15 | worse by 0.30 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.13 | better by 0.05 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.04 | better by 0.03 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.21 | better by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 18% of them, Jaguars 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 27.5% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 29.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Wright, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Wright, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Wright, 39 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Wright, 31 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Colts 4 for 52 yards, Jaguars 6 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:05 | False Start on the Jaguars (Laquon Treadwell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +1% IND +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Running Into the Kicker on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% JAX +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Khari Willis), 17 yards | +4% JAX +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Marvin Jones), 10 yards | +2% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards | +1% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 14 yards | 0% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:56 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 15 yards | 0% JAX +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:38 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:21 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% JAX +2.0 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:51 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:38 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:02 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% JAX | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 0:29 | The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 12:54 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +8% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 9:53 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +6% JAX | IND: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 9:12 | M. Badgley made 41-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:23 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +7% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Wingard (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Logan Cooke (JAX P), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
- James Robinson (JAX RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Xavier Rhodes (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Andrew Sendejo (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 5% · Jaguars 95%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 15
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 18% · Jaguars 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · 
Colts · 
Jaguars
More from Week 18 2021
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 28–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles DAL 51–26 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 31–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Packers at Lions DET 37–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 16–13 · replay 17% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 28–25 · replay 71% for the winner
- Washington at Giants WAS 22–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 33–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 38–30 · replay 83% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 27–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LV 35–32 · replay 58% for the winner