luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Browns, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 21–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:40 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 18 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 16
Cleveland Browns 21

January 9, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +11 Browns about even · −11 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Browns win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 16 CLE 10
  2. 2 CIN 21 CLE 23
  3. 3 CIN 16 CLE 20
  4. 4 CIN 10 CLE 17
  5. 5 CIN 17 CLE 27
  6. 6 CIN 14 CLE 27
  7. 7 CIN 20 CLE 36
  8. 8 CIN 10 CLE 30
  9. 9 CIN 14 CLE 37
  10. 10 CIN 0 CLE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 11% of them, Browns 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.8%
Bengals by 9–162.3%
Bengals by 1–87.7%
Level after regulation1.5%
Browns by 1–819.6%
Browns by 9–1624.6%
Browns by 17+43.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 5, without the luck Browns by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 32 yards, Browns 4 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:30 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q1 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +4% CLE +1.2 pts
Q2 14:21 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 12:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Ricardo Allen), 12 yards +2% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 0:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns, 15 yards +3% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 9:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 16 yards +8% CIN +2.1 pts
Q3 6:35 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:47 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q2 3:40 The Browns fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +18% CIN CLE: Turnover
3 Q2 0:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Browns, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% CIN CLE: Punt
4 Q3 9:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1315 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q4 14:15 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% CIN CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:25 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:31 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Baker Mayfield (CLE QB), out (IR), replaced by c.keenum · 3.5 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Jackson (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out, replaced by b.allen · 7.1 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Vonn Bell (CIN SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Larry Ogunjobi (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan McPherson (CIN K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Hopkins (CIN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quinton Spain (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 3% · Browns 97%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
4.5 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 11% · Browns 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Bengals · Browns

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