luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Ravens, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Steelers stole one. They beat the Ravens 16–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 2:28 left): the Steelers converted 4th & 8, worth 35 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final (OT)

Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Baltimore Ravens 13

January 9, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +83 Steelers very lucky · −83 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 29 BAL 15
  2. 2 PIT 26 BAL 21
  3. 3 PIT 17 BAL 20
  4. 4 PIT 17 BAL 23
  5. 5 PIT 26 BAL 36
  6. 6 PIT 16 BAL 29
  7. 7 PIT 13 BAL 30
  8. 8 PIT 22 BAL 43
  9. 9 PIT 16 BAL 41
  10. 10 PIT 7 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 17% of them, Ravens 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+1.8%
Steelers by 9–164.0%
Steelers by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Ravens by 1–818.8%
Ravens by 9–1619.3%
Ravens by 17+44.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 3, without the luck Ravens by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 43 yards, Ravens 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:21 False Start on the Steelers (Benny Snell Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 6:00 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 11:36 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 3 yards +4% BAL +1.3 pts
Q4 11:09 Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +20% BAL +3.3 pts
Q4 5:57 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 3:44 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:09 Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q4 5:57 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +17% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:28 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +15% PIT BAL: Field goal
4 QOT 6:35 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% PIT BAL: Punt
5 QOT 5:18 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +17% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 QOT 3:28 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +20% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 QOT 2:32 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +17% BAL PIT: Field goal
8 QOT 2:28 The Steelers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +35% PIT PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.0 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Odafe Oweh (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dan Moore (PIT T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Corliss Waitman (PIT P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 87% · Ravens 13%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
6.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 17% · Ravens 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Steelers · Ravens

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