Week 18 2021 · January 8, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Eagles, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Eagles 51–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:15 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 51 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Eagles win 1.
- 1 DAL 43 PHI 10
- 2 DAL 44 PHI 17
- 3 DAL 38 PHI 16
- 4 DAL 28 PHI 10
- 5 DAL 31 PHI 16
- 6 DAL 27 PHI 17
- 7 DAL 30 PHI 23
- 8 DAL 44 PHI 38
- 9 DAL 26 PHI 24
- 10 DAL 21 PHI 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 94% of them, Eagles 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 55.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 84% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 5 for 44 yards, Eagles 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:10 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:29 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +2% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 14 yards | +6% PHI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:10 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +5% DAL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Tarell Basham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +6% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:48 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Kary Vincent Jr.), 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:13 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:26 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:26 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +9% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:06 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 14:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +6% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 12:28 | J. Elliott made 38-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +6% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:15 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 4:15 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.0 pts
- Steven Nelson (PHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
- Josh Sweat (PHI DE), out · 0.5 pts
- Javon Hargrave (PHI DT), out · 0.5 pts
- Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rodney McLeod (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Anthony Harris (PHI FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Alex Singleton (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Nate Herbig (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 100% · Eagles 0%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 23.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 94% · Eagles 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · 
Cowboys · 
Eagles
More from Week 18 2021
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 28–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 31–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Packers at Lions DET 37–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 26–11 · replay 82% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 16–13 · replay 17% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 28–25 · replay 71% for the winner
- Washington at Giants WAS 22–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 33–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 38–30 · replay 83% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 27–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LV 35–32 · replay 58% for the winner