luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2021: game by game

The Chiefs went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.5.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Browns W 33–29 70% +30
Week 2 @ Ravens L 35–36 33% −33
Week 3 vs Chargers L 24–30 63% −63
Week 4 @ Eagles W 42–30 95% +5
Week 5 vs Bills L 20–38 57% −57
Week 6 @ Washington W 31–13 95% +5
Week 7 @ Titans L 3–27 14% −14
Week 8 vs Giants W 20–17 81% +19
Week 9 vs Packers W 13–7 68% +32
Week 10 @ Raiders W 41–14 84% +16
Week 11 vs Cowboys W 19–9 84% +16
Week 13 vs Broncos W 22–9 65% +35
Week 14 vs Raiders W 48–9 96% +4
Week 15 @ Chargers W 34–28 73% +27
Week 16 vs Steelers W 36–10 88% +12
Week 17 @ Bengals L 31–34 85% −85
Week 18 @ Broncos W 28–24 79% +21
Wild Card vs Steelers W 42–21 99% +1
Divisional round vs Bills W 42–36 72% +28
AFC Championship vs Bengals L 24–27 80% −80

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.51+23.6
3rd & 4th downs+0.28+11.7
Kicks+0.19+11.5
Fumble bounces+0.10+6.3
Rest+0.04+1.8
Judgment calls−0.49−22.2