luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Titans, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Chiefs 27–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 62% favorites.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 3
Tennessee Titans 27

October 24, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4

Luck index +14 Titans about even · −14 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 KC 30 TEN 23
  2. 2 KC 28 TEN 30
  3. 3 KC 13 TEN 17
  4. 4 KC 24 TEN 31
  5. 5 KC 14 TEN 24
  6. 6 KC 14 TEN 26
  7. 7 KC 21 TEN 36
  8. 8 KC 6 TEN 24
  9. 9 KC 7 TEN 31
  10. 10 KC 7 TEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 14% of them, Titans 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+0.9%
Chiefs by 9–162.8%
Chiefs by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Titans by 1–820.3%
Titans by 9–1625.7%
Titans by 17+39.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 24, without the luck Titans by 16.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Bullock, 51 yds made · 64% expected
  • H. Butker, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • H. Butker, 57 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 9 for 77 yards, Titans 6 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 18 yards +1% TEN +1.0 pts
Q1 11:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:43 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 4:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Anthony Firkser), 3 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +2.3 pts
Q2 14:07 False Start on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 6:26 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Rashad Fenton), 5 yards +2% TEN +2.0 pts
Q2 2:29 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% TEN +1.9 pts
Q3 13:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Demarcus Robinson), 10 yards 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:42 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 10:56 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 8 yards, wiping out the play 0% KC +2.1 pts
Q3 3:14 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards 0% TEN +0.1 pts
Q3 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% TEN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:43 False Start on the Chiefs (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 10:47 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Dane Cruikshank), 5 yards 0% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 0:52 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% KC +3.5 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 1952 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +3% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:43 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Anthony Firkser), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 998 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +5% KC KC: Punt
4 Q1 4:35 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:15 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% KC TEN: Field goal
7 Q2 6:26 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Rashad Fenton), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1281 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +2% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Hitchens (KC LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 2% · Titans 98%

Final margin
Titans by 24
Luck in points
7.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 14% · Titans 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Chiefs · Titans

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