luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Buccaneers, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Bears 38–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:27 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Chicago Bears 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

October 24, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −12.5

Luck index +1 Buccaneers about even · −1 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 17 TB 23
  2. 2 CHI 25 TB 37
  3. 3 CHI 23 TB 37
  4. 4 CHI 20 TB 37
  5. 5 CHI 27 TB 47
  6. 6 CHI 9 TB 34
  7. 7 CHI 24 TB 52
  8. 8 CHI 14 TB 45
  9. 9 CHI 14 TB 51
  10. 10 CHI 20 TB 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 1% of them, Buccaneers 99%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.0%
Bears by 9–160.1%
Bears by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Buccaneers by 1–82.6%
Buccaneers by 9–168.0%
Buccaneers by 17+88.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Buccaneers by 35, without the luck Buccaneers by 38.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • C. Santos, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 4 for 32 yards, Buccaneers 1 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 15 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:41 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Alec Ogletree), 5 yards 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 7:47 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards 0% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 6:06 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 2:12 Disqualification on the Bears (Bilal Nichols), 2 yards 0% TB +0.7 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 719 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +2% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:58 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% TB CHI: Punt
4 Q1 9:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% CHI TB: Punt
5 Q1 7:27 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% TB CHI: Turnover
6 Q1 4:40 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +2% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:13 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TB CHI: Punt
8 Q2 10:06 R. Succop missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +2% CHI TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Richard Sherman (TB CB), out · 1.6 pts
  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Germain Ifedi (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Germain Ifedi (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (CHI DB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Montgomery (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Quinn (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (CHI FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 35
Luck in points
3.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 38.4
Replay with same day's form
Bears 1% · Buccaneers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Bears · Buccaneers

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