Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Panthers at Giants, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Panthers 25–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:42 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 3 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Giants about even · −4 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Giants win 10.
- 1 CAR 20 NYG 23
- 2 CAR 3 NYG 10
- 3 CAR 17 NYG 27
- 4 CAR 12 NYG 24
- 5 CAR 6 NYG 21
- 6 CAR 7 NYG 25
- 7 CAR 14 NYG 34
- 8 CAR 0 NYG 24
- 9 CAR 3 NYG 30
- 10 CAR 12 NYG 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.11 | worse by 0.32 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.11 | better by 0.26 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.08 | worse by 0.23 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | +0.15 | better by 0.37 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 4% of them, Giants 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Giants by 17+ | 70.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 79% expected
- G. Gano, 49 yds made · 80% expected
- G. Gano, 53 yds made · 74% expected
- G. Gano, 44 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Panthers 7 for 37 yards, Giants 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:15 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Clay Johnston), 3 yards | +2% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:36 | False Start on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Sam Darnold), 3 yards | +1% NYG +0.3 pts |
| Q2 13:14 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards | +4% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:47 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CAR +1.5 pts |
| Q2 9:28 | Illegal Motion on the Giants (John Ross), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% CAR +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:37 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +1% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:19 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jermaine Carter Jr.), 5 yards | 0% NYG +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:32 | Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Daniel Jones), 10 yards | +3% CAR +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:37 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Keion Crossen), 10 yards | +4% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:37 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NYG +3.0 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 10 yards | +1% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:26 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Keith Taylor), 5 yards | 0% NYG +0.4 pts |
Panthers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:22 | The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +5% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:37 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:42 | The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +12% CAR | NYG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:56 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Panthers (Sam Darnold), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2007 snaps before, position avg 1 per 711 | +7% NYG | CAR: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 3:28 | The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYG | NYG: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:08 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +10% NYG | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:39 | The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +10% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:37 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
- Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Cameron Erving (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 0% · Giants 100%
- Final margin
- Giants by 22
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 18.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 4% · Giants 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · 
Panthers · 
Giants
More from Week 7 2021
- Broncos at Browns CLE 17–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- Falcons at Dolphins ATL 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens CIN 41–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 27–3 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 54–13 · replay 93% for the winner
- Washington at Packers GB 24–10 · replay 54% for the winner
- Lions at Rams LA 28–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eagles at Raiders LV 33–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bears at Buccaneers TB 38–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Cardinals ARI 31–5 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at 49ers IND 30–18 · replay 46% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks NO 13–10 · replay 52% for the winner