luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Cardinals, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Texans 31–5, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 94% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:01 left): the Texans fumbled and the Cardinals recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Houston Texans 5
Arizona Cardinals 31

October 24, 2021 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −20.5

Luck index +1 Cardinals about even · −1 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Cardinals win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 20 ARI 24
  2. 2 HOU 14 ARI 22
  3. 3 HOU 13 ARI 24
  4. 4 HOU 10 ARI 25
  5. 5 HOU 3 ARI 20
  6. 6 HOU 3 ARI 23
  7. 7 HOU 0 ARI 22
  8. 8 HOU 11 ARI 36
  9. 9 HOU 12 ARI 43
  10. 10 HOU 6 ARI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 1% of them, Cardinals 99%. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.0%
Texans by 9–160.2%
Texans by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
Cardinals by 1–83.4%
Cardinals by 9–1613.0%
Cardinals by 17+82.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.1 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 26, without the luck Cardinals by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 80 yards, Cardinals 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:27 Chop Block on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 15 yards +8% ARI +2.5 pts
Q1 2:18 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 7:42 Taunting on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 15 yards +5% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 4:20 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% HOU +2.0 pts
Q2 3:46 False Start on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 2:03 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% ARI +1.2 pts
Q2 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 11 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +1.2 pts
Q2 0:22 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 12:58 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +1% ARI +1.0 pts
Q3 11:44 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Jonathan Ward), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 5:44 Horse Collar Tackle on the Texans (Jordan Jenkins), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.8 pts
Q3 5:44 False Start on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 3:12 Illegal Motion on the Texans (Davis Mills), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 4:39 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 3:56 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Deionte Thompson), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% HOU +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:56 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q1 4:27 Chop Block on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% ARI ARI: Safety
3 Q2 11:01 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% HOU ARI: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:56 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:05 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:42 Taunting on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2324 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% HOU HOU: Turnover
7 Q2 6:01 The Texans fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% ARI HOU: Punt
8 Q2 3:46 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedFalse Start on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 2538 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Allen (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 8.3 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Cardinals 100%

Final margin
Cardinals by 26
Luck in points
16.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 1% · Cardinals 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Texans · Cardinals

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