luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · October 21, 2021–October 25

Week 7 2021: who deserved to win

1 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the 49ers 30–18 in a game they win 46% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 41–17 @ Ravens 32% 83% Deserved
Titans 27–3 vs Chiefs 38% 86% Deserved
Colts 30–18 @ 49ers 40% 46% Coin flip
Giants 25–3 vs Panthers 41% 96% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 30–18 @ 49ers 46% +54
2 Saints W 13–10 @ Seahawks 52% +48
3 Falcons W 30–28 @ Dolphins 53% +47
4 Packers W 24–10 vs Washington 54% +46
5 Browns W 17–14 vs Broncos 69% +31
6 Bengals W 41–17 @ Ravens 83% +17
7 Rams W 28–19 vs Lions 85% +15
8 Raiders W 33–22 vs Eagles 85% +15
9 Titans W 27–3 vs Chiefs 86% +14
10 Patriots W 54–13 vs Jets 93% +7
11 Giants W 25–3 vs Panthers 96% +4
12 Cardinals W 31–5 vs Texans 99% +1
13 Buccaneers W 38–3 vs Bears 99% +1
14 Bears L 3–38 @ Buccaneers 1% −1
15 Texans L 5–31 @ Cardinals 1% −1
16 Panthers L 3–25 @ Giants 4% −4
17 Jets L 13–54 @ Patriots 7% −7
18 Chiefs L 3–27 @ Titans 14% −14
19 Eagles L 22–33 @ Raiders 15% −15
20 Lions L 19–28 @ Rams 15% −15
21 Ravens L 17–41 vs Bengals 17% −17
22 Broncos L 14–17 @ Browns 31% −31
23 Washington L 10–24 @ Packers 46% −46
24 Dolphins L 28–30 vs Falcons 47% −47
25 Seahawks L 10–13 vs Saints 48% −48
26 49ers L 18–30 vs Colts 54% −54