luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Ravens, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 41–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Ravens: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:02 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 2, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 41
Baltimore Ravens 17

October 24, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +17 Bengals about even · −17 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Ravens win 2.

  1. 1 CIN 50 BAL 17
  2. 2 CIN 42 BAL 17
  3. 3 CIN 45 BAL 23
  4. 4 CIN 24 BAL 7
  5. 5 CIN 37 BAL 23
  6. 6 CIN 32 BAL 23
  7. 7 CIN 20 BAL 15
  8. 8 CIN 29 BAL 27
  9. 9 CIN 34 BAL 38
  10. 10 CIN 20 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Ravens

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

43 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.40 +0.13 better by 0.27
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.12 better by 0.14
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.18 worse by 0.21
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.40 +0.10 worse by 0.30

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 83% of them, Ravens 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+45.8%
Bengals by 9–1620.4%
Bengals by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Ravens by 1–89.3%
Ravens by 9–164.3%
Ravens by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 24, without the luck Bengals by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 1 for 5 yards, Ravens 5 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:07 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Devin Duvernay), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CIN +1.8 pts
Q2 7:06 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 16 yards +5% CIN +1.3 pts
Q4 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% CIN +4.3 pts
Q4 8:03 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q4 8:03 False Start on the Ravens (Marquise Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 7:07 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:19 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 7:28 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 0:30 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% BAL BAL: Field goal
4 Q3 15:00 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:22 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% CIN BAL: Punt
6 Q3 6:02 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:55 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% BAL CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (BAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 100% · Ravens 0%

Final margin
Bengals by 24
Luck in points
9.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 83% · Ravens 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Bengals · Ravens

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