luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Packers, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat Washington 24–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:03 left): Washington were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Washington Football Team 10
Green Bay Packers 24

October 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −8.5

Luck index +46 Packers lucky · −46 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 5, Packers win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 29 GB 6
  2. 2 WAS 34 GB 20
  3. 3 WAS 31 GB 21
  4. 4 WAS 31 GB 26
  5. 5 WAS 26 GB 24
  6. 6 WAS 10 GB 12
  7. 7 WAS 18 GB 24
  8. 8 WAS 3 GB 13
  9. 9 WAS 16 GB 31
  10. 10 WAS 10 GB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 46% of them, Packers 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+10.3%
Washington by 9–1613.4%
Washington by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.9%
Packers by 1–821.8%
Packers by 9–1614.8%
Packers by 17+12.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Washington: the final margin was Packers by 14, without the luck Packers by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Blewitt, 42 yds blocked · 83% expected
  • M. Crosby, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Blewitt, 45 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 4 for 50 yards, Packers 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:11 Offensive Holding on Washington (Antonio Gandy-Golden), 10 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 19 yards +7% WAS +2.2 pts
Q3 11:47 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% GB +1.8 pts
Q3 5:52 False Start on the Packers (Randall Cobb), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 0:33 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 7 yards +1% GB +1.1 pts
Q4 12:52 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Benjamin St-Juste), 25 yards 0% GB +1.4 pts
Q4 12:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 2:25 Illegal Touch Kick on Washington (Ricky Seals-Jones), 5 yards 0% GB +0.4 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:07 The Packers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:20 The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:43 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% WAS GB: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1815 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q2 11:26 C. Blewitt had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 83% expected for him +9% GB WAS: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:24 M. Crosby had a 34-yard field goal blockedKicks · 94% expected for him +6% WAS GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:03 Washington were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% GB WAS: End of half
8 Q2 0:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Preston Smith (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 3% · Packers 97%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
0.4 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 46% · Packers 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Washington · Packers

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