luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Raiders, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Eagles 33–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:11 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 15, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 22
Las Vegas Raiders 33

October 24, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +15 Raiders about even · −15 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 24 LV 17
  2. 2 PHI 13 LV 15
  3. 3 PHI 9 LV 13
  4. 4 PHI 16 LV 23
  5. 5 PHI 10 LV 20
  6. 6 PHI 21 LV 33
  7. 7 PHI 7 LV 23
  8. 8 PHI 5 LV 24
  9. 9 PHI 14 LV 37
  10. 10 PHI 7 LV 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 15% of them, Raiders 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.9%
Eagles by 9–163.5%
Eagles by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Raiders by 1–820.2%
Raiders by 9–1625.4%
Raiders by 17+39.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Raiders by 11, without the luck Raiders by 14.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 37 yards, Raiders 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:49 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards +3% PHI +0.5 pts
Q1 7:30 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% PHI +1.5 pts
Q1 5:44 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% PHI +1.4 pts
Q2 7:12 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 14:23 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Raiders (Henry Ruggs III), 15 yards +2% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 11:40 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yards +1% LV +1.4 pts
Q3 9:40 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q3 9:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Eagles, 12 yards +1% LV +1.1 pts
Q3 5:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yards 0% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 2:08 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 2:15 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:11 The Raiders converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% LV LV: Turnover
2 Q1 4:48 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% PHI LV: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:26 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q2 7:12 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:49 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% LV PHI: Punt
6 Q2 1:38 The Eagles fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LV PHI: End of half
7 Q2 0:07 D. Carlson made 28-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +3% PHI LV: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:18 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trayvon Mullen (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Harris (PHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 11
Luck in points
3.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 14.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 15% · Raiders 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Eagles · Raiders

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