luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Dolphins, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Dolphins 30–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Y. Koo made 36-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 30
Miami Dolphins 28

October 24, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +47 Falcons lucky · −47 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 34 MIA 12
  2. 2 ATL 38 MIA 23
  3. 3 ATL 30 MIA 20
  4. 4 ATL 35 MIA 30
  5. 5 ATL 36 MIA 34
  6. 6 ATL 17 MIA 20
  7. 7 ATL 20 MIA 25
  8. 8 ATL 26 MIA 35
  9. 9 ATL 7 MIA 19
  10. 10 ATL 9 MIA 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 53% of them, Dolphins 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+12.3%
Falcons by 9–1615.3%
Falcons by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.7%
Dolphins by 1–820.7%
Dolphins by 9–1614.4%
Dolphins by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 2, without the luck Dolphins by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 29 yards, Dolphins 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 2:28 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 2:15 Face Mask on the Falcons (Adetokunbo Ogundeji), 15 yards +7% MIA +1.9 pts
Q3 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +7% ATL +2.2 pts
Q4 13:15 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Raekwon Davis), 4 yards +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 12:51 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Duke Riley), 10 yards +1% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 8:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Jaylinn Hawkins), 9 yards +3% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 5:54 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Isaiah Ford), 10 yards +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 5:37 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 0:03 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:07 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:13 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% MIA ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% ATL ATL: Turnover
5 Q4 6:03 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% MIA ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 5:37 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 3:30 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for himFalse Start on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +26% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Jenkins (MIA NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Nizialek (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 39% · Dolphins 61%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
3.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 53% · Dolphins 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Falcons · Dolphins

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