luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Browns, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Broncos 17–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Browns were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:23 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 14
Cleveland Browns 17

October 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2

Luck index +31 Browns lucky · −31 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 DEN 27 CLE 13
  2. 2 DEN 24 CLE 17
  3. 3 DEN 17 CLE 14
  4. 4 DEN 14 CLE 16
  5. 5 DEN 13 CLE 17
  6. 6 DEN 17 CLE 24
  7. 7 DEN 17 CLE 27
  8. 8 DEN 10 CLE 23
  9. 9 DEN 14 CLE 30
  10. 10 DEN 0 CLE 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 31% of them, Browns 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+2.7%
Broncos by 9–168.0%
Broncos by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation2.2%
Browns by 1–829.3%
Browns by 9–1622.9%
Browns by 17+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Browns by 3, without the luck Browns by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 56% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 41 yds blocked · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 2 for 15 yards, Browns 9 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:13 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.6 pts
Q1 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DEN +1.6 pts
Q1 3:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 11:32 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 10:52 False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 5:09 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 0:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 10 yards +1% CLE +0.3 pts
Q3 7:48 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 11:32 Illegal Formation on the Browns (Anthony Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 11:19 Face Mask on the Browns (Malcolm Smith), 15 yards +4% DEN +2.1 pts
Q4 1:13 Illegal Motion on the Browns (David Njoku), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% DEN +1.6 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:14 C. McLaughlin made 52-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 11 of 15 from 45+ before +5% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q2 1:56 C. McLaughlin had a 41-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him +6% DEN CLE: Punt
3 Q3 7:53 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:58 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% CLE DEN: Punt
6 Q4 11:19 Face Mask on the Browns (Malcolm Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1014 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:22 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:23 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Baker Mayfield (CLE QB), out, replaced by c.keenum · 4.4 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN ILB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DaeSean Hamilton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 8% · Browns 92%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
7.7 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 31% · Browns 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Broncos · Browns

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