luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · October 14, 2021–October 18

Week 6 2021: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Raiders beat the Broncos 34–24 in a game they win 45% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 34–31 vs Bills 33% 57% Coin flip
Raiders 34–24 @ Broncos 36% 45% Coin flip
Cardinals 37–14 @ Browns 41% 58% Coin flip
Jaguars 23–20 vs Dolphins 43% 62% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Raiders W 34–24 @ Broncos 45% +55
2 Titans W 34–31 vs Bills 57% +43
3 Cardinals W 37–14 @ Browns 58% +42
4 Jaguars W 23–20 vs Dolphins 62% +38
5 Ravens W 34–6 vs Chargers 67% +33
6 Steelers W 23–20 vs Seahawks 73% +27
7 Cowboys W 35–29 @ Patriots 82% +18
8 Vikings W 34–28 @ Panthers 83% +17
9 Buccaneers W 28–22 @ Eagles 85% +15
10 Colts W 31–3 vs Texans 88% +12
11 Bengals W 34–11 @ Lions 89% +11
12 Packers W 24–14 @ Bears 90% +10
13 Chiefs W 31–13 @ Washington 95% +5
14 Rams W 38–11 @ Giants 97% +3
15 Giants L 11–38 vs Rams 3% −3
16 Washington L 13–31 vs Chiefs 5% −5
17 Bears L 14–24 vs Packers 10% −10
18 Lions L 11–34 vs Bengals 11% −11
19 Texans L 3–31 @ Colts 12% −12
20 Eagles L 22–28 vs Buccaneers 15% −15
21 Panthers L 28–34 vs Vikings 17% −17
22 Patriots L 29–35 vs Cowboys 18% −18
23 Seahawks L 20–23 @ Steelers 27% −27
24 Chargers L 6–34 @ Ravens 33% −33
25 Dolphins L 20–23 @ Jaguars 38% −38
26 Browns L 14–37 vs Cardinals 42% −42
27 Bills L 31–34 @ Titans 43% −43
28 Broncos L 24–34 vs Raiders 55% −55