luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Houston Texans, 2021: game by game

The Texans went 4–13 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–4.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Jaguars W 37–21 83% +17
Week 2 @ Browns L 21–31 22% −23
Week 3 vs Panthers L 9–24 25% −25
Week 4 @ Bills L 0–40 2% −2
Week 5 vs Patriots L 22–25 24% −24
Week 6 @ Colts L 3–31 12% −12
Week 7 @ Cardinals L 5–31 1% −1
Week 8 vs Rams L 22–38 2% −2
Week 9 @ Dolphins L 9–17 42% −42
Week 11 @ Titans W 22–13 13% +87
Week 12 vs Jets L 14–21 14% −14
Week 13 vs Colts L 0–31 0% 0
Week 14 vs Seahawks L 13–33 15% −15
Week 15 @ Jaguars W 30–16 31% +69
Week 16 vs Chargers W 41–29 24% +76
Week 17 @ 49ers L 7–23 1% −1
Week 18 vs Titans L 25–28 29% −29

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.10−3.4
Rest+0.02+1.0
Judgment calls−0.12−8.3
Fumble bounces−0.15−6.3
3rd & 4th downs−0.19−4.5
Injuries−1.00−51.7