luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Jaguars, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 30–16, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:42 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 30
Jacksonville Jaguars 16

December 19, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6

Luck index +69 Texans very lucky · −69 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 24 JAX 9
  2. 2 HOU 20 JAX 13
  3. 3 HOU 17 JAX 14
  4. 4 HOU 6 JAX 8
  5. 5 HOU 16 JAX 20
  6. 6 HOU 7 JAX 14
  7. 7 HOU 25 JAX 34
  8. 8 HOU 10 JAX 23
  9. 9 HOU 3 JAX 20
  10. 10 HOU 0 JAX 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 31% of them, Jaguars 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.1%
Texans by 9–168.8%
Texans by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jaguars by 1–830.3%
Jaguars by 9–1621.5%
Jaguars by 17+15.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 14, without the luck Texans by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds made · 60% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 63% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Wright, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Wright, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 9 for 65 yards, Jaguars 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:16 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 13:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 5 yards +7% HOU +3.8 pts
Q1 4:37 Face Mask on the Texans (Eric Murray), 15 yards +6% JAX +1.1 pts
Q2 12:09 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards +6% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 1:39 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 10:39 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 6:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 10 yards +6% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 3:53 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.2 pts
Q4 9:52 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Texans (Kevin Pierre-Louis), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 6:35 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 5:24 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards +4% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 1:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +1.1 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1556 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:42 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1185 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +6% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:29 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% HOU JAX: Punt
6 Q3 6:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 938 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 13:30 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +16% JAX HOU: Punt
8 Q4 2:32 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dan Arnold (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Terrance Mitchell (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin McCray (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lane Taylor (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 76% · Jaguars 24%

Final margin
Texans by 14
Luck in points
7.0 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Texans 31% · Jaguars 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Texans · Jaguars

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