luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Eagles, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat Washington 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:33 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 17
Philadelphia Eagles 27

December 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −10

Luck index +8 Eagles about even · −8 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 27 PHI 21
  2. 2 WAS 6 PHI 9
  3. 3 WAS 28 PHI 34
  4. 4 WAS 31 PHI 41
  5. 5 WAS 19 PHI 32
  6. 6 WAS 13 PHI 29
  7. 7 WAS 14 PHI 34
  8. 8 WAS 7 PHI 31
  9. 9 WAS 10 PHI 37
  10. 10 WAS 3 PHI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 8% of them, Eagles 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.5%
Washington by 9–161.7%
Washington by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–815.7%
Eagles by 9–1619.9%
Eagles by 17+55.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 10, without the luck Eagles by 8.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Johnson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 2 for 25 yards, Eagles 4 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +1.7 pts
Q2 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 4:04 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 1:29 Offensive Holding on Washington (Nate Orchard), 10 yards +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 14:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 23 yards +4% WAS +2.7 pts
Q4 14:15 Illegal Blindside Block on Washington, 15 yards +2% PHI +1.4 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:33 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +15% WAS PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 4:35 The Eagles fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS PHI: Punt
3 Q2 13:15 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% WAS WAS: Punt
4 Q2 8:14 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% WAS PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 12:39 Washington converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:37 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 3:29 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Taylor Heinicke (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by g.gilbert · 2.8 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kamren Curl (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Joey Slye (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 10
Luck in points
1.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Washington 8% · Eagles 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Washington · Eagles

More from Week 15 2021