luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · December 16, 2021–December 21

Week 15 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Saints beat the Buccaneers 9–0 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Lions 30–12 vs Cardinals 17% 20% Lucky
Saints 9–0 @ Buccaneers 20% 17% Lucky
Texans 30–16 @ Jaguars 33% 31% Lucky
Bengals 15–10 @ Broncos 41% 67% Deserved
Colts 27–17 vs Patriots 47% 75% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Saints W 9–0 @ Buccaneers 17% +83
2 Lions W 30–12 vs Cardinals 20% +80
3 Texans W 30–16 @ Jaguars 31% +69
4 Vikings W 17–9 @ Bears 44% +56
5 Raiders W 16–14 @ Browns 52% +48
6 Steelers W 19–13 vs Titans 67% +33
7 Bengals W 15–10 @ Broncos 67% +33
8 Dolphins W 31–24 vs Jets 72% +28
9 Cowboys W 21–6 @ Giants 73% +27
10 Chiefs W 34–28 @ Chargers 73% +27
11 Colts W 27–17 vs Patriots 75% +25
12 Packers W 31–30 @ Ravens 77% +23
13 Bills W 31–14 vs Panthers 83% +17
14 49ers W 31–13 vs Falcons 89% +11
15 Rams W 20–10 vs Seahawks 89% +11
16 Eagles W 27–17 vs Washington 92% +8
17 Washington L 17–27 @ Eagles 8% −8
18 Seahawks L 10–20 @ Rams 11% −11
19 Falcons L 13–31 @ 49ers 11% −11
20 Panthers L 14–31 @ Bills 17% −17
21 Ravens L 30–31 vs Packers 23% −23
22 Patriots L 17–27 @ Colts 25% −25
23 Chargers L 28–34 vs Chiefs 27% −27
24 Giants L 6–21 vs Cowboys 27% −27
25 Jets L 24–31 @ Dolphins 28% −28
26 Broncos L 10–15 vs Bengals 33% −33
27 Titans L 13–19 @ Steelers 33% −33
28 Browns L 14–16 vs Raiders 48% −48
29 Bears L 9–17 vs Vikings 56% −56
30 Jaguars L 16–30 vs Texans 69% −69
31 Cardinals L 12–30 @ Lions 80% −80
32 Buccaneers L 0–9 vs Saints 83% −83