luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · December 23, 2021–December 27

Week 16 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Chargers 41–29 in a game they win 24% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Texans 41–29 vs Chargers 16% 24% Lucky
Bears 25–24 @ Seahawks 30% 37% Lucky
Titans 20–17 vs 49ers 40% 33% Lucky
Colts 22–16 @ Cardinals 41% 61% Deserved
Raiders 17–13 vs Broncos 47% 77% Deserved
Bills 33–21 @ Patriots 47% 78% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 41–29 vs Chargers 24% +76
2 Titans W 20–17 vs 49ers 33% +67
3 Bears W 25–24 @ Seahawks 37% +63
4 Packers W 24–22 vs Browns 48% +52
5 Jets W 26–21 vs Jaguars 55% +45
6 Falcons W 20–16 vs Lions 60% +40
7 Colts W 22–16 @ Cardinals 61% +39
8 Dolphins W 20–3 @ Saints 70% +30
9 Raiders W 17–13 vs Broncos 77% +23
10 Bills W 33–21 @ Patriots 78% +22
11 Bengals W 41–21 vs Ravens 83% +17
12 Rams W 30–23 @ Vikings 85% +15
13 Cowboys W 56–14 vs Washington 87% +13
14 Chiefs W 36–10 vs Steelers 88% +12
15 Eagles W 34–10 vs Giants 95% +5
16 Buccaneers W 32–6 @ Panthers 96% +4
17 Panthers L 6–32 vs Buccaneers 4% −4
18 Giants L 10–34 @ Eagles 5% −5
19 Steelers L 10–36 @ Chiefs 12% −12
20 Washington L 14–56 @ Cowboys 13% −13
21 Vikings L 23–30 vs Rams 15% −15
22 Ravens L 21–41 @ Bengals 17% −17
23 Patriots L 21–33 vs Bills 22% −22
24 Broncos L 13–17 @ Raiders 23% −23
25 Saints L 3–20 vs Dolphins 30% −30
26 Cardinals L 16–22 vs Colts 39% −39
27 Lions L 16–20 @ Falcons 40% −40
28 Jaguars L 21–26 @ Jets 45% −45
29 Browns L 22–24 @ Packers 52% −52
30 Seahawks L 24–25 vs Bears 63% −63
31 49ers L 17–20 @ Titans 67% −67
32 Chargers L 29–41 @ Texans 76% −76