luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2021: game by game

The Bears went 6–11 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Rams L 14–34 9% −9
Week 2 vs Bengals W 20–17 37% +63
Week 3 @ Browns L 6–26 4% −4
Week 4 vs Lions W 24–14 72% +28
Week 5 @ Raiders W 20–9 52% +49
Week 6 vs Packers L 14–24 10% −10
Week 7 @ Buccaneers L 3–38 1% −1
Week 8 vs 49ers L 22–33 4% −4
Week 9 @ Steelers L 27–29 66% −66
Week 11 vs Ravens L 13–16 37% −37
Week 12 @ Lions W 16–14 80% +20
Week 13 vs Cardinals L 22–33 44% −44
Week 14 @ Packers L 30–45 13% −13
Week 15 vs Vikings L 9–17 56% −56
Week 16 @ Seahawks W 25–24 37% +63
Week 17 vs Giants W 29–3 90% +10
Week 18 @ Vikings L 17–31 46% −46

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Fumble bounces+0.34+6.3
Injuries+0.06+2.0
Rest−0.05−2.8
3rd & 4th downs−0.17+0.6
Judgment calls−0.34−4.2
Kicks−0.69−8.3