luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Bears, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bears 16–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:48 left): the Bears converted 4th & 11, worth 41 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 16
Chicago Bears 13

November 21, 2021 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Ravens −5

Luck index +37 Ravens lucky · −37 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 37 CHI 12
  2. 2 BAL 23 CHI 7
  3. 3 BAL 36 CHI 24
  4. 4 BAL 34 CHI 27
  5. 5 BAL 30 CHI 26
  6. 6 BAL 11 CHI 9
  7. 7 BAL 15 CHI 17
  8. 8 BAL 20 CHI 27
  9. 9 BAL 9 CHI 21
  10. 10 BAL 10 CHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 63% of them, Bears 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+16.0%
Ravens by 9–1617.3%
Ravens by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation3.1%
Bears by 1–817.9%
Bears by 9–1612.2%
Bears by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Ravens by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 40 yds missed · 86% expected
  • J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 36 yards, Bears 6 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:15 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 1:57 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% CHI +1.5 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 9:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 17 yards +5% BAL +2.6 pts
Q3 5:43 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 4:28 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts
Q3 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +4% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 12:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 1:48 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 1 yard +1% CHI +0.1 pts
Q4 1:48 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +9% BAL +0.2 pts
Q4 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 21 yards +4% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +18% CHI +1.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:03 C. Santos missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +10% BAL CHI: Punt
2 Q3 13:40 The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CHI CHI: Punt
3 Q4 12:30 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +14% BAL CHI: Punt
4 Q4 2:42 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +19% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:48 The Bears converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 1 yardJudgment calls · 1 flag in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409False Start on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +41% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls +18% CHI CHI: End of game
7 Q4 0:33 The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +31% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:14 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% CHI CHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Germain Ifedi (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Allen Robinson (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.4 pts
  • Marquise Brown (BAL WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 13% · Bears 87%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
1.5 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 63% · Bears 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Ravens · Bears

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