luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Browns, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Lions 13–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:04 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 10
Cleveland Browns 13

November 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −13

Luck index +30 Browns lucky · −30 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 DET 37 CLE 20
  2. 2 DET 21 CLE 13
  3. 3 DET 20 CLE 17
  4. 4 DET 27 CLE 29
  5. 5 DET 20 CLE 25
  6. 6 DET 17 CLE 26
  7. 7 DET 13 CLE 26
  8. 8 DET 16 CLE 33
  9. 9 DET 17 CLE 37
  10. 10 DET 20 CLE 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 30% of them, Browns 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+4.4%
Lions by 9–168.6%
Lions by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation3.7%
Browns by 1–824.6%
Browns by 9–1620.8%
Browns by 17+23.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 3, without the luck Lions by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
  • A. Rosas, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 67 yards, Browns 10 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.5 pts
Q1 8:19 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Will Harris), 10 yards +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q1 6:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Josh Reynolds), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CLE +2.3 pts
Q2 13:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards +4% CLE +2.1 pts
Q2 10:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Tommy Togiai), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 8:04 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Tracy Walker), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 7:58 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +3% DET +1.4 pts
Q2 4:08 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 4 yards +5% CLE +2.5 pts
Q2 1:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 9 yards +2% CLE +1.7 pts
Q2 0:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 0:28 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 15 yards +3% DET +0.5 pts
Q3 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DET +1.8 pts
Q3 7:24 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 5:17 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% DET +1.8 pts
Q3 0:35 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions, 15 yards +6% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 12:54 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harrison Bryant), 7 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +2.3 pts
Q4 11:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards +4% DET +0.9 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:54 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% CLE DET: Punt
2 Q2 13:57 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
3 Q2 10:13 C. McLaughlin missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 12 of 17 from 45+ before +6% DET CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:44 The Browns converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:04 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:35 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% CLE CLE: Turnover
7 Q4 12:54 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harrison Bryant), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1149 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +6% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 11:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% DET CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jared Goff (DET QB), out, replaced by t.boyle · 4.4 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Nelson (DET T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 30% · Browns 70%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
4.5 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 30% · Browns 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Lions · Browns

More from Week 11 2021