luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Jets, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 24–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:10 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 8, worth 29 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
New York Jets 17

November 21, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3.5

Luck index +52 Dolphins lucky · −52 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 MIA 27 NYJ 7
  2. 2 MIA 27 NYJ 13
  3. 3 MIA 20 NYJ 10
  4. 4 MIA 20 NYJ 14
  5. 5 MIA 23 NYJ 21
  6. 6 MIA 27 NYJ 28
  7. 7 MIA 20 NYJ 24
  8. 8 MIA 21 NYJ 30
  9. 9 MIA 13 NYJ 27
  10. 10 MIA 3 NYJ 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 48% of them, Jets 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+9.4%
Dolphins by 9–1614.4%
Dolphins by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation5.9%
Jets by 1–822.9%
Jets by 9–1614.3%
Jets by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 7, without the luck Dolphins by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 55 yds missed · 62% expected
  • J. Sanders, 32 yds missed · 95% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 62 yards, Jets 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:12 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 3:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q1 2:13 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 7:23 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIA +2.9 pts
Q2 5:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 7 yards, wiping out the play +10% NYJ +3.4 pts
Q3 11:28 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 10:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 6 yards, wiping out the play +16% NYJ +4.2 pts
Q3 9:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Nick Bawden), 10 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 6:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 5:39 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Joe Flacco), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 3:58 Fair Catch Interference on the Dolphins, 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 11:15 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 3 yards +5% MIA +1.9 pts
Q4 11:11 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q4 5:30 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIA +1.7 pts
Q4 2:00 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:04 The Jets converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:23 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q2 5:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1820 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +10% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:04 J. Sanders missed 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +10% NYJ MIA: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 603 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +16% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
6 Q3 5:30 M. Ammendola missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +9% MIA NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:10 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +29% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:23 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +17% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandin Echols (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (NYJ SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 77% · Jets 23%

Final margin
Dolphins by 7
Luck in points
2.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 48% · Jets 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Dolphins · Jets

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