luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 22, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Buccaneers, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Giants 30–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:09 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

November 22, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −11.5

Luck index +3 Buccaneers about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 13 TB 15
  2. 2 NYG 13 TB 20
  3. 3 NYG 20 TB 30
  4. 4 NYG 7 TB 20
  5. 5 NYG 21 TB 37
  6. 6 NYG 13 TB 30
  7. 7 NYG 10 TB 31
  8. 8 NYG 10 TB 34
  9. 9 NYG 20 TB 50
  10. 10 NYG 10 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 3% of them, Buccaneers 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.1%
Giants by 9–160.6%
Giants by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Buccaneers by 1–86.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1616.2%
Buccaneers by 17+74.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 20, without the luck Buccaneers by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Succop, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Succop, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 4 for 30 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:44 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.4 pts
Q1 5:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q1 4:35 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NYG +3.9 pts
Q2 0:56 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.1 pts
Q3 14:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 9 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 10:38 Illegal Substitution on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% NYG +3.1 pts
Q3 8:34 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yards 0% TB +1.1 pts
Q3 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 0:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards +1% TB +1.2 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:30 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 12:57 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q2 11:27 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% NYG TB: Field goal
4 Q2 8:02 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% NYG NYG: Turnover
6 Q3 12:27 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% TB NYG: Turnover
7 Q3 11:55 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:38 Illegal Substitution on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +9% NYG NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Richard Sherman (TB CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Dee Delaney (TB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Carson Tinker (TB LS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Logan Ryan (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 20
Luck in points
0.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 3% · Buccaneers 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Giants · Buccaneers

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