2021 season · final

New York Giants, 2021: game by game

The Giants went 4–13 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Broncos	L 13–27	27%	−27
Week 2	@ Washington	L 29–30	39%	−39
Week 3	vs Falcons	L 14–17	36%	−36
Week 4	@ Saints	W 27–21	17%	+83
Week 5	@ Cowboys	L 20–44	29%	−29
Week 6	vs Rams	L 11–38	3%	−3
Week 7	vs Panthers	W 25–3	96%	+4
Week 8	@ Chiefs	L 17–20	19%	−19
Week 9	vs Raiders	W 23–16	13%	+87
Week 11	@ Buccaneers	L 10–30	3%	−3
Week 12	vs Eagles	W 13–7	23%	+77
Week 13	@ Dolphins	L 9–20	29%	−29
Week 14	@ Chargers	L 21–37	9%	−9
Week 15	vs Cowboys	L 6–21	27%	−27
Week 16	@ Eagles	L 10–34	5%	−5
Week 17	@ Bears	L 3–29	10%	−10
Week 18	vs Washington	L 7–22	8%	−8

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −27 vs DEN

Wk 2 −39 @ WAS

Wk 3 −36 vs ATL

Wk 4 +83 @ NO

Wk 5 −29 @ DAL

Wk 6 −3 vs LA

Wk 7 +4 vs CAR

Wk 8 −19 @ KC

Wk 9 +87 vs LV

Wk 11 −3 @ TB

Wk 12 +77 vs PHI

Wk 13 −29 @ MIA

Wk 14 −9 @ LAC

Wk 15 −27 vs DAL

Wk 16 −5 @ PHI

Wk 17 −10 @ CHI

Wk 18 −8 vs WAS

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.71	+27.6
Fumble bounces	+0.13	−1.6
Kicks	−0.08	+2.6
Injuries	−0.55	−23.4