luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Saints, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Saints 27–21, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Saints were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:58 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 7, worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 27
New Orleans Saints 21

October 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7.5

Luck index +83 Giants very lucky · −83 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 33 NO 21
  2. 2 NYG 27 NO 23
  3. 3 NYG 31 NO 34
  4. 4 NYG 24 NO 30
  5. 5 NYG 14 NO 23
  6. 6 NYG 17 NO 30
  7. 7 NYG 24 NO 38
  8. 8 NYG 26 NO 44
  9. 9 NYG 21 NO 44
  10. 10 NYG 7 NO 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 17% of them, Saints 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.8%
Giants by 9–164.3%
Giants by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Saints by 1–824.8%
Saints by 9–1621.6%
Saints by 17+36.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 6, without the luck Saints by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 35 yds missed · 95% expected
  • A. Rosas, 58 yds missed · 57% expected
  • G. Gano, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 3 for 25 yards, Saints 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Kenny Golladay), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NO +2.8 pts
Q2 4:32 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +1.9 pts
Q2 0:37 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% NYG +1.7 pts
Q2 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +6% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 6:24 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Adam Trautman), 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% NYG +4.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Saints (Garrett Griffin), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 3:17 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.3 pts
QOT 7:49 Illegal Substitution on the Giants (Collin Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% NO +1.1 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:20 G. Gano missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +11% NO NYG: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:29 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +14% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:24 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Adam Trautman), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 763 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +16% NYG NYG: Punt
4 Q4 0:58 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +19% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 0:36 G. Gano made 48-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 12 of 13 from 45+ before +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 QOT 7:49 Illegal Substitution on the Giants (Collin Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 448 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +10% NO –
7 QOT 6:56 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 QOT 5:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C/G), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 49% · Saints 51%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
6.9 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 17% · Saints 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Giants · Saints

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