luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Packers, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Steelers 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:38 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Green Bay Packers 27

October 3, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −6.5

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 34 GB 27
  2. 2 PIT 13 GB 16
  3. 3 PIT 21 GB 26
  4. 4 PIT 9 GB 17
  5. 5 PIT 33 GB 44
  6. 6 PIT 6 GB 20
  7. 7 PIT 7 GB 24
  8. 8 PIT 17 GB 37
  9. 9 PIT 3 GB 27
  10. 10 PIT 21 GB 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 14% of them, Packers 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.9%
Steelers by 9–162.9%
Steelers by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–820.3%
Packers by 9–1622.7%
Packers by 17+42.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 10, without the luck Packers by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 34 yards, Packers 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:23 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Equanimeous St. Brown), 10 yards +3% PIT +1.0 pts
Q2 12:28 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 9:34 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 0:20 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% PIT +4.7 pts
Q3 11:23 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 6 yards +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q3 9:31 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Benny Snell Jr.), 8 yards +2% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 14:24 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 4:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 5 yards 0% PIT +2.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:11 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +17% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:21 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% PIT GB: Punt
3 Q1 0:46 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:38 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% GB PIT: Field goal
6 Q2 11:03 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:20 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2151 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +13% PIT GB: Field goal
8 Q3 14:15 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Claypool (PIT WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chukwuma Okorafor (PIT T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyson Alualu (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chukwuma Okorafor (PIT OL), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 3% · Packers 97%

Final margin
Packers by 10
Luck in points
0.3 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 14% · Packers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Steelers · Packers

More from Week 4 2021