Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Broncos, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Broncos 23–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Broncos.
An off day for the Broncos: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 23 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Ravens about even · −11 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Broncos win 1.
- 1 BAL 51 DEN 17
- 2 BAL 37 DEN 10
- 3 BAL 44 DEN 23
- 4 BAL 47 DEN 30
- 5 BAL 38 DEN 24
- 6 BAL 38 DEN 28
- 7 BAL 29 DEN 21
- 8 BAL 35 DEN 30
- 9 BAL 26 DEN 24
- 10 BAL 24 DEN 32
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Broncos
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.18 | worse by 0.08 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.22 | +0.10 | better by 0.32 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | −0.22 | +0.10 | worse by 0.33 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.08 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 89% of them, Broncos 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 50.7% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Tucker, 40 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Tucker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
Penalties: Ravens 6 for 55 yards, Broncos 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:56 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards | +6% DEN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | False Start on the Broncos (Eric Saubert), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:18 | Illegal Shift on the Broncos (Kendall Hinton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +8% DEN +4.5 pts |
| Q4 9:14 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% BAL +2.5 pts |
| Q4 6:26 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | 0% BAL +1.3 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 377 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 | +6% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:30 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% BAL | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:39 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% DEN | BAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 11:54 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 7:33 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% DEN | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 5:05 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% BAL | DEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 9:14 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Bradley Chubb (DEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Josey Jewell (DEN ILB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dalton Risner (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL S), out · 0.4 pts
- Miles Boykin (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Ty'Son Williams (BAL RB), out · 0.2 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 100% · Broncos 0%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 16
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 18.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 89% · Broncos 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · 
Ravens · 
Broncos
More from Week 4 2021
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 24–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- Panthers at Cowboys DAL 36–28 · replay 78% for the winner
- Browns at Vikings CLE 14–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 24–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texans at Bills BUF 40–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Dolphins IND 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Eagles KC 42–30 · replay 95% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NYG 27–21 · replay 17% for the winner
- Titans at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Washington at Falcons WAS 34–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 37–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 28–21 · replay 8% for the winner
- Steelers at Packers GB 27–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Patriots TB 19–17 · replay 77% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 28–14 · replay 78% for the winner