luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Patriots, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Patriots 19–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:59 left): N. Folk missed 56-yard field goal, worth 44 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
New England Patriots 17

October 3, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +23 Buccaneers about even · −23 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 TB 45 NE 17
  2. 2 TB 29 NE 6
  3. 3 TB 37 NE 20
  4. 4 TB 24 NE 10
  5. 5 TB 21 NE 10
  6. 6 TB 24 NE 17
  7. 7 TB 30 NE 26
  8. 8 TB 30 NE 28
  9. 9 TB 17 NE 20
  10. 10 TB 24 NE 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 77% of them, Patriots 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+31.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.5%
Buccaneers by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Patriots by 1–812.2%
Patriots by 9–166.3%
Patriots by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Buccaneers by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds missed · 91% expected
  • R. Succop, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • R. Succop, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • N. Folk, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 7 for 74 yards, Patriots 8 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (Rashard Robinson), 10 yards +3% NE +0.9 pts
Q1 3:07 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 14:49 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 12:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Richard Sherman), 10 yards +8% NE +1.5 pts
Q2 11:24 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +8% TB +1.3 pts
Q2 9:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 10 yards +4% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 7:51 False Start on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 14:13 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 9 yards, wiping out the play +22% NE +5.0 pts
Q3 7:45 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Patriots (Matthew Slater), 6 yards, wiping out the play +8% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 6:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Davon Godchaux), 5 yards +4% TB +1.2 pts
Q4 4:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kyle Van Noy), 31 yards +11% TB +2.1 pts
Q4 3:43 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards +15% NE +1.3 pts
Q4 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 20 yards +7% NE +1.0 pts
Q4 1:34 False Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap +8% TB +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 14:13 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +22% NE NE: Turnover
2 Q4 9:35 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q4 4:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kyle Van Noy), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1784 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q4 3:43 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2051 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +15% NE NE: Missed field goal
5 Q4 3:03 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q4 2:02 R. Succop made 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before +11% TB TB: End of game
7 Q4 1:03 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% TB NE: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:59 N. Folk missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 12 of 16 from 45+ before +44% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB OLB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 67% · Patriots 33%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
3.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 77% · Patriots 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Buccaneers · Patriots

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