luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 4, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Chargers, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 28–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 14
Los Angeles Chargers 28

October 4, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +22 Chargers about even · −22 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 LV 27 LAC 14
  2. 2 LV 23 LAC 19
  3. 3 LV 33 LAC 36
  4. 4 LV 17 LAC 23
  5. 5 LV 24 LAC 31
  6. 6 LV 26 LAC 37
  7. 7 LV 14 LAC 28
  8. 8 LV 13 LAC 30
  9. 9 LV 24 LAC 46
  10. 10 LV 7 LAC 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 22% of them, Chargers 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+2.6%
Raiders by 9–166.0%
Raiders by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Chargers by 1–826.0%
Chargers by 9–1620.1%
Chargers by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chargers by 14, without the luck Chargers by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Raiders 7 for 58 yards, Chargers 7 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:58 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q1 13:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q1 1:59 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 13:38 Horse Collar Tackle on the Chargers, 15 yards +1% LV +1.4 pts
Q2 9:08 Taunting on the Raiders (Darren Waller), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 7:11 Face Mask on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 15 yards +5% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Divine Deablo), 8 yards +1% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 0:21 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.1 pts
Q3 14:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Nasir Adderley), 15 yards +1% LV +1.9 pts
Q3 13:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 4:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 45 yards +4% LV +2.9 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Darius Philon), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.7 pts
Q4 3:59 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards 0% LV +1.0 pts
Q4 2:19 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.7 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:03 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% LV LAC: Punt
2 Q2 12:23 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +4% LAC LV: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 7:11 Face Mask on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1237 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 45 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 203 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:51 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:23 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% LAC LV: Missed field goal
7 Q4 10:42 D. Carlson missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 12 of 16 from 45+ before +5% LAC LV: Turnover
8 Q4 9:24 The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Chargers 100%

Final margin
Chargers by 14
Luck in points
0.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 22% · Chargers 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Raiders · Chargers

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