luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Jets, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Titans 27–24, but the Titans played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Titans were 66% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 0:19 left): R. Bullock missed 49-yard field goal, worth 71 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Titans 24
New York Jets 27

October 3, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Titans −5.5

Luck index +70 Jets very lucky · −70 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 TEN 40 NYJ 10
  2. 2 TEN 30 NYJ 9
  3. 3 TEN 37 NYJ 21
  4. 4 TEN 31 NYJ 20
  5. 5 TEN 25 NYJ 17
  6. 6 TEN 35 NYJ 30
  7. 7 TEN 30 NYJ 28
  8. 8 TEN 20 NYJ 23
  9. 9 TEN 13 NYJ 21
  10. 10 TEN 23 NYJ 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 70% of them, Jets 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+25.8%
Titans by 9–1619.3%
Titans by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation3.3%
Jets by 1–815.2%
Jets by 9–168.2%
Jets by 17+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 3, without the luck Titans by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 49 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 8 for 98 yards, Jets 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:07 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q1 9:18 Defensive Offside on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 4:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans, 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 12:15 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 14 yards +2% TEN +1.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 10 yards +4% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q3 12:26 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q3 8:17 Illegal Touch Pass on the Titans, 5 yards +5% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q3 5:55 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards +4% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 4:01 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q4 13:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Dane Cruikshank), 43 yards +7% NYJ +2.4 pts
Q4 7:07 Fair Catch Interference on the Jets, 15 yards +6% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 1:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 22 yards +6% TEN +2.5 pts
QOT 0:32 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% NYJ +0.5 pts
QOT 0:24 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% NYJ +0.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:58 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q4 3:46 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +13% NYJ TEN: Turnover on downs
3 QOT 8:18 The Jets converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +29% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 QOT 4:33 M. Ammendola made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +34% TEN –
5 QOT 2:19 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +23% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
6 QOT 1:10 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +31% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
7 QOT 0:32 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 837 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +13% NYJ TEN: Missed field goal
8 QOT 0:19 The game turned hereR. Bullock missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 14 of 21 from 45+ before +71% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Derick Roberson (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brett Kern (TEN P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 73% · Jets 27%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
8.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 70% · Jets 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Titans · Jets

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