luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · September 30, 2021–October 4

Week 4 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the 49ers 28–21 in a game they win 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 27–21 @ Saints 29% 17% Lucky
Jets 27–24 vs Titans 34% 30% Lucky
Cardinals 37–20 @ Rams 40% 71% Deserved
Colts 27–17 @ Dolphins 43% 88% Deserved
Seahawks 28–21 @ 49ers 43% 8% Lucky
Ravens 23–7 @ Broncos 47% 89% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 28–21 @ 49ers 8% +92
2 Giants W 27–21 @ Saints 17% +83
3 Jets W 27–24 vs Titans 30% +70
4 Bengals W 24–21 vs Jaguars 42% +58
5 Browns W 14–7 @ Vikings 63% +37
6 Washington W 34–30 @ Falcons 70% +30
7 Cardinals W 37–20 @ Rams 71% +29
8 Bears W 24–14 vs Lions 72% +28
9 Buccaneers W 19–17 @ Patriots 77% +23
10 Chargers W 28–14 vs Raiders 78% +22
11 Cowboys W 36–28 vs Panthers 78% +22
12 Packers W 27–17 vs Steelers 86% +14
13 Colts W 27–17 @ Dolphins 88% +12
14 Ravens W 23–7 @ Broncos 89% +11
15 Chiefs W 42–30 @ Eagles 95% +5
16 Bills W 40–0 vs Texans 98% +2
17 Texans L 0–40 @ Bills 2% −2
18 Eagles L 30–42 vs Chiefs 5% −5
19 Broncos L 7–23 vs Ravens 11% −11
20 Dolphins L 17–27 vs Colts 12% −12
21 Steelers L 17–27 @ Packers 14% −14
22 Panthers L 28–36 @ Cowboys 22% −22
23 Raiders L 14–28 @ Chargers 22% −22
24 Patriots L 17–19 vs Buccaneers 23% −23
25 Lions L 14–24 @ Bears 28% −28
26 Rams L 20–37 vs Cardinals 29% −29
27 Falcons L 30–34 vs Washington 30% −30
28 Vikings L 7–14 vs Browns 37% −37
29 Jaguars L 21–24 @ Bengals 58% −58
30 Titans L 24–27 @ Jets 70% −70
31 Saints L 21–27 vs Giants 83% −83
32 49ers L 21–28 vs Seahawks 92% −92