luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · September 23, 2021–September 27

Week 3 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Buccaneers 34–24 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Chargers 30–24 @ Chiefs 32% 37% Lucky
Packers 30–28 @ 49ers 40% 88% Deserved
Falcons 17–14 @ Giants 41% 64% Deserved
Saints 28–13 @ Patriots 41% 83% Deserved
Bengals 24–10 @ Steelers 43% 85% Deserved
Vikings 30–17 vs Seahawks 44% 42% Coin flip
Rams 34–24 vs Buccaneers 47% 34% Lucky

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 34–24 vs Buccaneers 34% +66
2 Chargers W 30–24 @ Chiefs 37% +63
3 Vikings W 30–17 vs Seahawks 42% +58
4 Ravens W 19–17 @ Lions 52% +49
5 Titans W 25–16 vs Colts 62% +38
6 Falcons W 17–14 @ Giants 64% +36
7 Cowboys W 41–21 vs Eagles 74% +26
8 Panthers W 24–9 @ Texans 75% +25
9 Saints W 28–13 @ Patriots 83% +17
10 Bengals W 24–10 @ Steelers 85% +15
11 Packers W 30–28 @ 49ers 88% +12
12 Cardinals W 31–19 @ Jaguars 91% +9
13 Raiders W 31–28 vs Dolphins 92% +8
14 Broncos W 26–0 vs Jets 95% +5
15 Browns W 26–6 vs Bears 96% +4
16 Bills W 43–21 vs Washington 97% +3
17 Washington L 21–43 @ Bills 3% −3
18 Bears L 6–26 @ Browns 4% −4
19 Jets L 0–26 @ Broncos 5% −5
20 Dolphins L 28–31 @ Raiders 8% −8
21 Jaguars L 19–31 vs Cardinals 9% −9
22 49ers L 28–30 vs Packers 12% −12
23 Steelers L 10–24 vs Bengals 15% −15
24 Patriots L 13–28 vs Saints 17% −17
25 Texans L 9–24 vs Panthers 25% −25
26 Eagles L 21–41 @ Cowboys 26% −26
27 Giants L 14–17 vs Falcons 36% −36
28 Colts L 16–25 @ Titans 38% −38
29 Lions L 17–19 vs Ravens 49% −49
30 Seahawks L 17–30 @ Vikings 58% −58
31 Chiefs L 24–30 vs Chargers 63% −63
32 Buccaneers L 24–34 @ Rams 66% −66