luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Giants, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Giants 17–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Y. Koo made 40-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New York Giants 14

September 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +36 Falcons lucky · −36 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 ATL 44 NYG 20
  2. 2 ATL 27 NYG 10
  3. 3 ATL 18 NYG 6
  4. 4 ATL 19 NYG 10
  5. 5 ATL 18 NYG 13
  6. 6 ATL 12 NYG 10
  7. 7 ATL 7 NYG 10
  8. 8 ATL 24 NYG 30
  9. 9 ATL 16 NYG 27
  10. 10 ATL 6 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 64% of them, Giants 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+15.7%
Falcons by 9–1620.1%
Falcons by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Giants by 1–819.7%
Giants by 9–1610.5%
Giants by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 3, without the luck Falcons by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 28 yards, Giants 8 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Rodarius Williams), 2 yards +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q1 11:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q1 2:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Gary Brightwell), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 9:30 False Start on the Giants (Elijhaa Penny), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 5:49 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Hayden Hurst), 10 yards +5% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 2:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (C.J. Board), 3 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 8 yards +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 9:50 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.3 pts
Q3 9:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% ATL +2.4 pts
Q4 13:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 7 yards +5% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 5 yards +9% ATL +1.8 pts
Q4 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 6 yards +8% NYG +1.0 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 1:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:14 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG ATL: Punt
4 Q3 9:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q4 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1187 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 2:12 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +25% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 60% · Giants 40%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
1.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 64% · Giants 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Falcons · Giants

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