luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Titans, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 25–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Titans were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:03 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 16
Tennessee Titans 25

September 26, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4.5

Luck index +38 Titans lucky · −38 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 IND 34 TEN 17
  2. 2 IND 31 TEN 21
  3. 3 IND 12 TEN 6
  4. 4 IND 23 TEN 20
  5. 5 IND 20 TEN 22
  6. 6 IND 16 TEN 21
  7. 7 IND 20 TEN 28
  8. 8 IND 15 TEN 27
  9. 9 IND 35 TEN 52
  10. 10 IND 3 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 38% of them, Titans 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+5.0%
Colts by 9–1611.8%
Colts by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation3.0%
Titans by 1–828.1%
Titans by 9–1616.9%
Titans by 17+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 9, without the luck Titans by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 51 yds missed · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 66 yards, Titans 4 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:43 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Carson Wentz), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.2 pts
Q1 1:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Khari Willis), 11 yards +4% TEN +2.1 pts
Q2 0:43 Illegal Contact on the Titans (David Long), 5 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 14:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 9 yards +3% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 4:56 Roughing the Kicker on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% TEN +2.5 pts
Q4 14:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Xavier Rhodes), 30 yards +4% TEN +1.5 pts
Q4 12:08 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yards +3% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 2:34 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% IND +1.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:40 The Titans converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:21 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% IND TEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:03 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% IND TEN: Turnover
4 Q3 10:45 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q3 7:27 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q3 6:30 R. Blankenship made 28-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +7% TEN IND: Punt
7 Q3 2:46 The Titans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% IND TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:01 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derick Roberson (TEN OLB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 32% · Titans 68%

Final margin
Titans by 9
Luck in points
6.9 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 38% · Titans 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Colts · Titans

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