luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Raiders, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Dolphins 31–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 62% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 6:20 left): Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Raiders. The biggest single swing (QOT, 5:50 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 20.

Final (OT)

Miami Dolphins 28
Las Vegas Raiders 31

September 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −4

Luck index +8 Raiders about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 25 LV 19
  2. 2 MIA 21 LV 23
  3. 3 MIA 31 LV 36
  4. 4 MIA 16 LV 23
  5. 5 MIA 17 LV 27
  6. 6 MIA 3 LV 16
  7. 7 MIA 21 LV 38
  8. 8 MIA 33 LV 54
  9. 9 MIA 12 LV 38
  10. 10 MIA 13 LV 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Raiders 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.0%
Dolphins by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation1.4%
Raiders by 1–817.0%
Raiders by 9–1620.2%
Raiders by 17+54.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Raiders by 3, without the luck Raiders by 7.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 68 yards, Raiders 8 for 104 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:36 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Derek Carr), 18 yards +2% MIA +1.6 pts
Q1 0:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Byron Jones), 0 yards 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 6:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Elandon Roberts), 15 yards +3% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 2:27 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Dolphins (Jevon Holland), 4 yards +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q2 1:51 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Casey Hayward), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Low Block on the Dolphins (Malcolm Brown), 15 yards +4% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 10:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 15 yards +7% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 8:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIA +2.6 pts
Q3 6:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Denzel Perryman), 15 yards +4% MIA +1.3 pts
Q3 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIA +2.0 pts
Q4 6:18 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +3% MIA +1.7 pts
Q4 2:18 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.1 pts
Q4 1:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 26 yards +11% MIA +2.7 pts
QOT 6:20 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +25% LV +2.7 pts
QOT 2:43 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.3 pts
QOT 0:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins, 4 yards · pre-snap +21% LV +0.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:49 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +33% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
2 Q4 0:08 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +18% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:02 The Dolphins’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 QOT 6:32 D. Carlson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +36% MIA LV: Field goal
5 QOT 6:20 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% LV LV: Field goal
6 QOT 5:50 The Dolphins converted 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +38% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 QOT 4:32 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +23% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 QOT 0:03 D. Carlson made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for himNeutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +22% LV LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raekwon Davis (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 20% · Raiders 80%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
4.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Raiders 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Dolphins · Raiders

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