luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · September 16, 2021–September 20

Week 2 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Colts 27–24 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 33–30 @ Seahawks 32% 65% Deserved
Raiders 26–17 @ Steelers 34% 80% Deserved
Ravens 36–35 vs Chiefs 40% 67% Deserved
Panthers 26–7 vs Saints 41% 79% Deserved
Cowboys 20–17 @ Chargers 41% 60% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 27–24 @ Colts 32% +68
2 Bears W 20–17 vs Bengals 37% +63
3 49ers W 17–11 @ Eagles 47% +53
4 Cowboys W 20–17 @ Chargers 60% +40
5 Washington W 30–29 vs Giants 61% +39
6 Titans W 33–30 @ Seahawks 65% +35
7 Ravens W 36–35 vs Chiefs 67% +33
8 Patriots W 25–6 @ Jets 71% +29
9 Cardinals W 34–33 vs Vikings 71% +29
10 Browns W 31–21 vs Texans 78% +23
11 Panthers W 26–7 vs Saints 79% +21
12 Raiders W 26–17 @ Steelers 80% +20
13 Buccaneers W 48–25 vs Falcons 86% +14
14 Broncos W 23–13 @ Jaguars 88% +12
15 Packers W 35–17 vs Lions 90% +10
16 Bills W 35–0 @ Dolphins 95% +5
17 Dolphins L 0–35 vs Bills 5% −5
18 Lions L 17–35 @ Packers 10% −10
19 Jaguars L 13–23 vs Broncos 12% −12
20 Falcons L 25–48 @ Buccaneers 14% −14
21 Steelers L 17–26 vs Raiders 20% −20
22 Saints L 7–26 @ Panthers 21% −21
23 Texans L 21–31 @ Browns 22% −23
24 Vikings L 33–34 @ Cardinals 29% −29
25 Jets L 6–25 vs Patriots 29% −29
26 Chiefs L 35–36 @ Ravens 33% −33
27 Seahawks L 30–33 vs Titans 35% −35
28 Giants L 29–30 @ Washington 39% −39
29 Chargers L 17–20 vs Cowboys 40% −40
30 Eagles L 11–17 vs 49ers 53% −53
31 Bengals L 17–20 @ Bears 63% −63
32 Colts L 24–27 vs Rams 68% −68