Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 48–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:02 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 25 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Buccaneers about even · −14 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Buccaneers win 9.
- 1 ATL 27 TB 19
- 2 ATL 28 TB 30
- 3 ATL 30 TB 36
- 4 ATL 33 TB 42
- 5 ATL 21 TB 33
- 6 ATL 19 TB 34
- 7 ATL 19 TB 37
- 8 ATL 26 TB 48
- 9 ATL 14 TB 41
- 10 ATL 13 TB 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 14% of them, Buccaneers 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 46.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 49 yards, Buccaneers 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q1 4:18 | False Start on the Falcons (Russell Gage), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:01 | False Start on the Buccaneers (Rob Gronkowski), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 21 yards | +3% TB +1.9 pts |
| Q2 9:17 | False Start on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 15 yards | +4% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 10 yards | +1% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Deion Jones), 3 yards | +1% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:08 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:19 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 8 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Rob Gronkowski), 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:08 | Taunting on the Buccaneers (Mike Edwards), 15 yards | 0% ATL +2.0 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:28 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:47 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% ATL | TB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:12 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% TB | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 8:53 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 3:42 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:29 | The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% TB | TB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 11:46 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +5% TB | ATL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:02 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +13% TB | ATL: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 0% · Buccaneers 100%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 23
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 30.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 14% · Buccaneers 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · 
Falcons · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 2 2021
- Giants at Washington WAS 30–29 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 35–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Bears CHI 20–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Broncos at Jaguars DEN 23–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 31–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Rams at Colts LA 27–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Raiders at Steelers LV 26–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 25–6 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 26–7 · replay 79% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 17–11 · replay 47% for the winner
- Vikings at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chargers DAL 20–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Titans at Seahawks TEN 33–30 · replay 65% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens BAL 36–35 · replay 67% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 35–17 · replay 90% for the winner