Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Seahawks, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Seahawks 33–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Seahawks: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 8:42 left): Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 15 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans. The biggest single swing (QOT, 8:08 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 10.
Final (OT)
 Tennessee Titans | 33 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Titans lucky · −35 Seahawks
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 7, Seahawks win 3.
- 1 TEN 46 SEA 17
- 2 TEN 45 SEA 24
- 3 TEN 33 SEA 17
- 4 TEN 39 SEA 27
- 5 TEN 38 SEA 30
- 6 TEN 26 SEA 21
- 7 TEN 26 SEA 24
- 8 TEN 31 SEA 34
- 9 TEN 31 SEA 41
- 10 TEN 10 SEA 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Seahawks
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.17 | better by 0.06 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.20 | better by 0.05 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.15 | better by 0.00 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.10 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 65% of them, Seahawks 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 25.1% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 6.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- R. Bullock, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Bullock, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- R. Bullock, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Bullock, 44 yds missed · 78% expected
- R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 90% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Titans 5 for 45 yards, Seahawks 10 for 100 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:56 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Rasheem Green), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 15 yards | +11% SEA +3.1 pts |
| Q2 14:11 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Illegal Motion on the Titans (Josh Reynolds), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 15 yards | +2% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:24 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Robert Nkemdiche), 12 yards | 0% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 11:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 14 yards | +3% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Cody Barton), 5 yards | +1% TEN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards | +1% TEN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Taunting on the Seahawks (D.J. Reed), 15 yards | +8% TEN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:13 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +5% SEA +1.5 pts |
| QOT 8:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 15 yards | +17% TEN +1.3 pts |
| QOT 8:38 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% SEA +0.6 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:54 | Roughing the Kicker on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 | +11% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 13:16 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 0:10 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% SEA | SEA: End of game |
| 4 | QOT 8:42 | The game turned hereRoughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1953 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +17% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | QOT 8:30 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% SEA | TEN: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 8:08 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +18% TEN | SEA: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 5:27 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 4:50 | R. Bullock made 36-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +9% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cedric Ogbuehi (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 78% · Seahawks 22%
- Final margin
- Titans by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 65% · Seahawks 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · 
Titans · 
Seahawks
More from Week 2 2021
- Giants at Washington WAS 30–29 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 35–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Bears CHI 20–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Broncos at Jaguars DEN 23–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 31–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Rams at Colts LA 27–24 · replay 32% for the winner
- Raiders at Steelers LV 26–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 25–6 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 26–7 · replay 79% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 17–11 · replay 47% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 48–25 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chargers DAL 20–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens BAL 36–35 · replay 67% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 35–17 · replay 90% for the winner