luckadjusted

Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Panthers, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Saints 26–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites.

Final

New Orleans Saints 7
Carolina Panthers 26

September 19, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +21 Panthers about even · −21 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 NO 26 CAR 10
  2. 2 NO 23 CAR 20
  3. 3 NO 20 CAR 23
  4. 4 NO 24 CAR 30
  5. 5 NO 14 CAR 23
  6. 6 NO 19 CAR 31
  7. 7 NO 6 CAR 22
  8. 8 NO 7 CAR 27
  9. 9 NO 9 CAR 33
  10. 10 NO 3 CAR 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 21% of them, Panthers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+2.3%
Saints by 9–166.4%
Saints by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Panthers by 1–824.9%
Panthers by 9–1621.1%
Panthers by 17+31.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 19, without the luck Panthers by 7.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 11 for 115 yards, Panthers 5 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:52 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers, 15 yards +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q1 10:43 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q1 10:43 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 9:18 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Payton Turner), 15 yards +3% CAR +1.6 pts
Q2 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NO +1.9 pts
Q2 3:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Payton Turner), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 1:47 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Jameis Winston), 11 yards +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 0:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Zack Baun), 15 yards +3% CAR +2.0 pts
Q2 0:01 False Start on the Panthers (Terrace Marshall Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 12:31 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Saints, 15 yards +1% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 8:27 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Marquez Callaway), 10 yards 0% CAR +1.0 pts
Q3 2:05 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 9:55 False Start on the Panthers (Stantley Thomas-Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q4 8:36 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Christian Ringo), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +2.1 pts
Q4 2:49 Illegal Blindside Block on the Panthers, 14 yards 0% NO +1.3 pts
Q4 2:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:43 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% CAR NO: Punt
2 Q1 9:18 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Payton Turner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +3% CAR CAR: Punt
3 Q1 7:03 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +4% NO CAR: Punt
4 Q1 1:48 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q2 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NO NO: Punt
6 Q2 0:01 False Start on the Panthers (Terrace Marshall Jr.), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 34 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +3% NO NO: Punt
7 Q4 14:43 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:36 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Christian Ringo), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 24 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +3% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trenton Scott (CAR T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C/G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 4% · Panthers 96%

Final margin
Panthers by 19
Luck in points
11.3 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 21% · Panthers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Saints · Panthers

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