luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · September 9, 2021–September 13

Week 1 2021: who deserved to win

Every winner of Week 1 earned it. The closest call: the Steelers won 23–16 and take 56% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 8 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 23–16 @ Bills 32% 56% Coin flip
Saints 38–3 vs Packers 38% 77% Deserved
Texans 37–21 vs Jaguars 40% 83% Deserved
Eagles 32–6 @ Falcons 40% 69% Deserved
Dolphins 17–16 @ Patriots 40% 78% Deserved
Bengals 27–24 vs Vikings 41% 80% Deserved
Raiders 33–27 vs Ravens 41% 72% Deserved
Cardinals 38–13 @ Titans 43% 78% Deserved
Chargers 20–16 @ Washington 43% 89% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 23–16 @ Bills 56% +44
2 49ers W 41–33 @ Lions 57% +43
3 Seahawks W 28–16 @ Colts 62% +38
4 Eagles W 32–6 @ Falcons 69% +31
5 Chiefs W 33–29 vs Browns 70% +30
6 Raiders W 33–27 vs Ravens 72% +28
7 Broncos W 27–13 @ Giants 73% +27
8 Buccaneers W 31–29 vs Cowboys 74% +26
9 Saints W 38–3 vs Packers 77% +23
10 Dolphins W 17–16 @ Patriots 78% +22
11 Cardinals W 38–13 @ Titans 78% +22
12 Bengals W 27–24 vs Vikings 80% +20
13 Texans W 37–21 vs Jaguars 83% +17
14 Chargers W 20–16 @ Washington 89% +11
15 Rams W 34–14 vs Bears 91% +9
16 Panthers W 19–14 vs Jets 93% +7
17 Jets L 14–19 @ Panthers 7% −7
18 Bears L 14–34 @ Rams 9% −9
19 Washington L 16–20 vs Chargers 11% −11
20 Jaguars L 21–37 @ Texans 17% −17
21 Vikings L 24–27 @ Bengals 20% −20
22 Titans L 13–38 vs Cardinals 22% −22
23 Patriots L 16–17 vs Dolphins 22% −22
24 Packers L 3–38 @ Saints 23% −23
25 Cowboys L 29–31 @ Buccaneers 26% −26
26 Giants L 13–27 vs Broncos 27% −27
27 Ravens L 27–33 @ Raiders 28% −28
28 Browns L 29–33 @ Chiefs 30% −30
29 Falcons L 6–32 vs Eagles 31% −31
30 Colts L 16–28 vs Seahawks 38% −38
31 Lions L 33–41 vs 49ers 43% −43
32 Bills L 16–23 vs Steelers 44% −44