Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Bengals, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Vikings 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Vikings: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 0:39 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 1, worth 67 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final (OT)
 Minnesota Vikings | 24 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Bengals about even · −20 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Bengals win 8.
- 1 MIN 24 CIN 9
- 2 MIN 34 CIN 31
- 3 MIN 18 CIN 20
- 4 MIN 20 CIN 25
- 5 MIN 20 CIN 28
- 6 MIN 21 CIN 32
- 7 MIN 9 CIN 23
- 8 MIN 20 CIN 38
- 9 MIN 0 CIN 23
- 10 MIN 16 CIN 46
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Vikings
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.17 | worse by 0.07 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.15 | better by 0.18 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.11 | worse by 0.14 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.16 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 20% of them, Bengals 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 2.9% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 31.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 53 yds made · 61% expected
- G. Joseph, 53 yds made · 61% expected
- E. McPherson, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Vikings 12 for 116 yards, Bengals 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 14:25 | False Start on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:30 | False Start on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:16 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% CIN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | False Start on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:08 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +2% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:08 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MIN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Bashaud Breeland), 26 yards | +5% CIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:35 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards | +1% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards | +2% MIN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:18 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +4% CIN +1.0 pts |
| QOT 3:05 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards | +7% MIN +0.7 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:22 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 2:30 | The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 8:11 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% MIN | CIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 0:03 | G. Joseph made 53-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +19% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | QOT 7:24 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +22% MIN | CIN: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 2:18 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +16% MIN | MIN: Turnover |
| 7 | QOT 1:11 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +22% MIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 0:39 | The game turned hereThe Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +67% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Fred Johnson (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts
- Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 40% · Bengals 60%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 20% · Bengals 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · 
Vikings · 
Bengals
More from Week 1 2021
- Cowboys at Buccaneers TB 31–29 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cardinals at Titans ARI 38–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 37–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Washington LAC 20–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jets at Panthers CAR 19–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons PHI 32–6 · replay 69% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills PIT 23–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Colts SEA 28–16 · replay 62% for the winner
- 49ers at Lions SF 41–33 · replay 57% for the winner
- Browns at Chiefs KC 33–29 · replay 70% for the winner
- Broncos at Giants DEN 27–13 · replay 73% for the winner
- Packers vs Saints NO 38–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 34–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Ravens at Raiders LV 33–27 · replay 72% for the winner