luckadjusted

Week 1 2021 · September 13, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Raiders, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Ravens 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:07 left): D. Carlson made 55-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Raiders. The biggest single swing (QOT, 6:19 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 5.

Final (OT)

Baltimore Ravens 27
Las Vegas Raiders 33

September 13, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +28 Raiders lucky · −28 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Raiders win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 40 LV 21
  2. 2 BAL 33 LV 24
  3. 3 BAL 24 LV 21
  4. 4 BAL 32 LV 34
  5. 5 BAL 34 LV 38
  6. 6 BAL 38 LV 45
  7. 7 BAL 27 LV 40
  8. 8 BAL 21 LV 37
  9. 9 BAL 17 LV 40
  10. 10 BAL 13 LV 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 28% of them, Raiders 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+6.4%
Ravens by 9–168.4%
Ravens by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation3.1%
Raiders by 1–824.1%
Raiders by 9–1618.3%
Raiders by 17+26.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 6, without the luck Raiders by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 71 yards, Raiders 10 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 7:09 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 12:38 False Start on the Raiders, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 4:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 9 yards +3% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 0:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Patrick Queen), 15 yards +4% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 14:14 Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 12:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Bryan Edwards), 4 yards, wiping out the play +11% BAL +3.1 pts
Q3 12:00 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q3 7:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 32 yards +6% LV +2.5 pts
Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 1:50 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Eric Tomlinson), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 14:44 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 3:58 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% BAL +1.1 pts
QOT 6:23 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
QOT 3:44 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:54 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +13% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Bryan Edwards), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 259 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +11% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q4 4:06 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +23% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:42 J. Tucker made 47-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before +12% BAL BAL: End of game
5 Q4 0:07 The game turned hereD. Carlson made 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before +22% LV LV: Turnover
6 QOT 7:16 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% LV LV: Turnover
7 QOT 6:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +32% BAL LV: Touchdown
8 QOT 4:39 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nevin Lawson (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Miles Boykin (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 33% · Raiders 67%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
4.0 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 28% · Raiders 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Ravens · Raiders

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