Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jets at Panthers, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Jets 19–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.
Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:33 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 New York Jets | 14 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Panthers about even · −7 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 1, Panthers win 9.
- 1 NYJ 26 CAR 21
- 2 NYJ 12 CAR 14
- 3 NYJ 23 CAR 29
- 4 NYJ 13 CAR 22
- 5 NYJ 12 CAR 24
- 6 NYJ 10 CAR 24
- 7 NYJ 7 CAR 24
- 8 NYJ 13 CAR 34
- 9 NYJ 13 CAR 39
- 10 NYJ 7 CAR 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 7% of them, Panthers 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 59.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Santoso, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- R. Santoso, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Jets 5 for 30 yards, Panthers 6 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:48 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:16 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYJ +3.1 pts |
| Q1 8:07 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q1 8:02 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Daniel Brown), 10 yards | +3% CAR +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:27 | Illegal Formation on the Jets (Tyler Kroft), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:11 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Shaq Thompson), 5 yards | +2% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Juston Burris), 8 yards | +2% NYJ +2.6 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:36 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:36 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% CAR +2.6 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:16 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:33 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% NYJ | CAR: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 5:52 | The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 4:23 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +4% CAR | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 4:18 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +13% CAR | NYJ: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:21 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +4% CAR | NYJ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 4:23 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% CAR | CAR: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- John Miller (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 0% · Panthers 100%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 5
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 7% · Panthers 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · 
Jets · 
Panthers
More from Week 1 2021
- Cowboys at Buccaneers TB 31–29 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cardinals at Titans ARI 38–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 37–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Washington LAC 20–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Vikings at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons PHI 32–6 · replay 69% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills PIT 23–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Colts SEA 28–16 · replay 62% for the winner
- 49ers at Lions SF 41–33 · replay 57% for the winner
- Browns at Chiefs KC 33–29 · replay 70% for the winner
- Broncos at Giants DEN 27–13 · replay 73% for the winner
- Packers vs Saints NO 38–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 34–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Ravens at Raiders LV 33–27 · replay 72% for the winner